We rarely get this much snow.
A couple of inches is about all, and if we get more than one or two brief snows per winter, that's unusual as well.
Some years lately we haven't even had any measurable snowfall on the valley floor.
We may get freezing rain a couple of times, or maybe none at all in an average winter.
This year, the snowfall is as heavy as it has been only a few times in my life in Oregon.
And we have had several snow storms in a row, and a couple of freezing rain events.
I have been here about 40 years, and in this Northwest part of Oregon, we normally just don't get the storms like the Eastern and Southern parts of the state.
Every winter we can drive an hour to Mount Hood for snow up to 10 feet deep, and there are many ski areas along the Cascades down the length of Oregon that are easily accessible to most of the population.
Usually we have to go to those mountains to see a foot of snow or more.
Today we just have to look out our windows.
I like it!
Monday, December 22, 2008
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Snow Day!
We have had snow off and on the last week or so, and now we are getting a big storm coming our way today that is expected to dump at least several more inches of snow.
Then it should transition to ice for tomorrow, and all next week we will probably have an off an on snow mix coming down.
White Christmas!
It's good to have seasons in Oregon.
Then it should transition to ice for tomorrow, and all next week we will probably have an off an on snow mix coming down.
White Christmas!
It's good to have seasons in Oregon.
Saturday, December 13, 2008
The Loan Arranger, To The Rescue!
After several weeks of good news/bad news, it appears that Congress has stopped trying to help the American auto industry (actually the Senate stopped the House) so the White House appears ready to step in and do "sumpthun" about it!
George Bush has done a lot of idiotic things in his term, and this is not one of them.
For all the recent Conservative Capitalist talk of the need to "Let the auto companies work out their problems in Bankruptcy like any other corporation", going Banko is not the solution here.
Avoiding the argument raised by bailing out the financial sector, which is a service industry producing nothing tangible, we need American auto companies for many reasons.
They are major drivers (oops) of the economy in many parts of the country, including all of the ancillary and supporting industries and businesses that provide parts and services to them.
They are a necessary component of any serious wartime effort to mobilize; we need workers skilled in producing such vehicles, as a security issue, even if we do our best to avoid war in the future.
Manufacturing is a staple of a strong economy. In the past, when the great powers of the world became rich, they shipped labor intensive work to cheaper countries, and focused more on finance. The Dutch, the Spanish and the British all once ruled the world. When they slowly changed from manufacturing powerhouses to finance powerhouses, they at first got richer, then they slowly lost economic strength, stumbled, and began to lose their supremacy. At the same time they also overstretched their military around the globe, and they ran up huge deficits in their spending. These compounded their problems, and hastened their decline as world powers.
Sound familiar?
The reason America became a superpower, then the superpower, was because Great Britain lost their position, and after competing for a couple of decades with a cardboard cutout of a juggernaut called the USSR, we took it.
Our innovation and manufacturing strength provided for economic strength, which provided for military strength. Our Democratic system of government and our economic strength have been great forces in tandem (for the most part) and are what have given us the ability to be a superpower. Sometimes we let our military strength go in directions it should not, but that is another argument.
The American auto makers actually have been competitive in the past, and are competitive in parts of the world now, and can be competitive in the future. Ford does very well in Europe, and GM does well in China, and Chrysler has in the not too distant past both great designs and very profitable years.
If we let our manufacturing companies go away, we lose those jobs, we lose those skills, and we risk losing much more.
If we feel we do not need or want to be a superpower anymore, then we need to make decisions about going that direction. We cannot let things happen to us without discussion and without generating public policy in a new direction if that is what we want.
Bush is right to help them survive. The reasons for their dire straits right now are many, including less innovative and exciting designs in many of their models, and lower quality than some of their competititors, as well as higher costs to build (primarily because of higher labor costs) than most of their competitors. And maybe one or all of them need new leadership to really get turned around.
But the real reason they are in such serious trouble right now is that sales fell so sharply late this year. And in that debacle, Detroit is not alone.
November sales fell over 30 % for Ford and GM, and about 40 % for Chrysler.
November sales fell over 30 % for Toyota and Honda.
November sales fell more for Toyota and Honda than they did for Ford.
Does anyone really believe that if Toyota or Honda start to fail, that the Japanese Government will not find a way to rescue them?
And if you believe that those two companies will not be allowed to fail, you get a hint as to why our Big Three should not be allowed to fail either.
Sure, it hurts to see billions going to financial firms that in many ways contributed to our terrible economic troubles, and sure you can say why throw more billions at the huge auto corporations, but you would be missing the larger point;
Even if the bailout of the Wall Street Finance Goobers was or is a huge mistake, saving the car companies is not a mistake.
In fact, it is just the opposite.
It is an imperative.
George Bush has done a lot of idiotic things in his term, and this is not one of them.
For all the recent Conservative Capitalist talk of the need to "Let the auto companies work out their problems in Bankruptcy like any other corporation", going Banko is not the solution here.
Avoiding the argument raised by bailing out the financial sector, which is a service industry producing nothing tangible, we need American auto companies for many reasons.
They are major drivers (oops) of the economy in many parts of the country, including all of the ancillary and supporting industries and businesses that provide parts and services to them.
They are a necessary component of any serious wartime effort to mobilize; we need workers skilled in producing such vehicles, as a security issue, even if we do our best to avoid war in the future.
Manufacturing is a staple of a strong economy. In the past, when the great powers of the world became rich, they shipped labor intensive work to cheaper countries, and focused more on finance. The Dutch, the Spanish and the British all once ruled the world. When they slowly changed from manufacturing powerhouses to finance powerhouses, they at first got richer, then they slowly lost economic strength, stumbled, and began to lose their supremacy. At the same time they also overstretched their military around the globe, and they ran up huge deficits in their spending. These compounded their problems, and hastened their decline as world powers.
Sound familiar?
The reason America became a superpower, then the superpower, was because Great Britain lost their position, and after competing for a couple of decades with a cardboard cutout of a juggernaut called the USSR, we took it.
Our innovation and manufacturing strength provided for economic strength, which provided for military strength. Our Democratic system of government and our economic strength have been great forces in tandem (for the most part) and are what have given us the ability to be a superpower. Sometimes we let our military strength go in directions it should not, but that is another argument.
The American auto makers actually have been competitive in the past, and are competitive in parts of the world now, and can be competitive in the future. Ford does very well in Europe, and GM does well in China, and Chrysler has in the not too distant past both great designs and very profitable years.
If we let our manufacturing companies go away, we lose those jobs, we lose those skills, and we risk losing much more.
If we feel we do not need or want to be a superpower anymore, then we need to make decisions about going that direction. We cannot let things happen to us without discussion and without generating public policy in a new direction if that is what we want.
Bush is right to help them survive. The reasons for their dire straits right now are many, including less innovative and exciting designs in many of their models, and lower quality than some of their competititors, as well as higher costs to build (primarily because of higher labor costs) than most of their competitors. And maybe one or all of them need new leadership to really get turned around.
But the real reason they are in such serious trouble right now is that sales fell so sharply late this year. And in that debacle, Detroit is not alone.
November sales fell over 30 % for Ford and GM, and about 40 % for Chrysler.
November sales fell over 30 % for Toyota and Honda.
November sales fell more for Toyota and Honda than they did for Ford.
Does anyone really believe that if Toyota or Honda start to fail, that the Japanese Government will not find a way to rescue them?
And if you believe that those two companies will not be allowed to fail, you get a hint as to why our Big Three should not be allowed to fail either.
Sure, it hurts to see billions going to financial firms that in many ways contributed to our terrible economic troubles, and sure you can say why throw more billions at the huge auto corporations, but you would be missing the larger point;
Even if the bailout of the Wall Street Finance Goobers was or is a huge mistake, saving the car companies is not a mistake.
In fact, it is just the opposite.
It is an imperative.
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Garibaldi is a small town on Tillamook Bay, on the North Oregon Coast.
The City of Garibaldi was named for Guiseppe Garibaldi, liberator and unifier of Italy, and a world hero in the 1860's.
Founder of the town, Daniel A. Bailey. was a great admirer of Garibaldi the hero.
The town went through booms and busts, and is now enduring one of the latter.
Lumber mills and fishing have carried and grown the town, but both industries have suffered declines for years.
I have been going there for one or two days a week for almost 6 months, to manage the turnaround of a small motel and rv park property, of which I am a co-owner.
Getting to know local residents has been an interesting part of the job.
There is still a fishing business, crab is still caught, some lumber is still cut and hauled, but there are many in the town who have either not enough work or no work at all.
- - -
My wife and I watched small birds in brown, grey, rust, black and white in our backyard yesterday morning as they fluttered in and out, finding bits of food among the plants and shrubs.
The back yard is small, surrounded by tall arbor vitae, with no cats or dogs roaming the space.
The birds found what food they could in the late November fog.
- - -
The day before that was the day after Thanksgiving. I was in Garibaldi early that morning to work on the business, marketing to potential clients, checking on maintenance and upkeep, showing up.
That morning, a commercial crab boat had gone out early. It was not named the "Alexa" or the "Emily" or the "Beautiful Jane", it was named in a play on words, the "Network", for working the nets.
The three on board had said goodbye early that morning to family, and had talked with friends and greeted visitors on the docks, and while making their way out of the marina.
The sky was dry but cloudy. Wind was moderate. Visibility excellent.
Then, heading to close sea for larger carbs and a bigger haul, they pushed over the bar, cutting rough waves coming from several directions, they got hit by a wave from the side, were floundered, righted, then were hit by another wave that took the boat under.
One of the three on board was rescued, suffering from severe hypothermia. The other two were not found that day. They may never be found, and yet they were just at the mouth of the bay, on the border between protected waters and the open ocean. Not far out to sea. Close to shore.
These are the first losses I have seen since going to the town regularly, though that bar is one of the most dangerous in the world, and people die there from time to time.
And although I did not know the men on board, I knew enough people in town who knew them.
I shared a little of their silent pain.
The people I talked with showed resignation, sadness, but not shock. This happens to some of those who work the sea.
- - -
The next morning, I appreciated the grass and plants, the small birds, the sky, my wife, my kids, and my life.
I listened a little more to music, thought a little more about the sky and the sea.
The two men on board who were lost did not have a second chance. That was it.
But each morning when I wake, I get a second chance at doing a little better, doing more of something useful.
This won't change my life, but it will make me think about it for a few days.
I won't be going through it as blindly for a short while.
Though I won't remember it like the families and friends of the two who are gone.
- - -
As I watched the backyard, I briefly understood why my father has made so many sculptures of those same birds. They move in unhurried haste, unaware of external worries. They are not sitting still, mourning any loss or pain, they are engaged in life. Their balletic movements and light verse make us feel better about our lives.
- - -
No matter what we do, or fail to do, we still get another chance each day.
The City of Garibaldi was named for Guiseppe Garibaldi, liberator and unifier of Italy, and a world hero in the 1860's.
Founder of the town, Daniel A. Bailey. was a great admirer of Garibaldi the hero.
The town went through booms and busts, and is now enduring one of the latter.
Lumber mills and fishing have carried and grown the town, but both industries have suffered declines for years.
I have been going there for one or two days a week for almost 6 months, to manage the turnaround of a small motel and rv park property, of which I am a co-owner.
Getting to know local residents has been an interesting part of the job.
There is still a fishing business, crab is still caught, some lumber is still cut and hauled, but there are many in the town who have either not enough work or no work at all.
- - -
My wife and I watched small birds in brown, grey, rust, black and white in our backyard yesterday morning as they fluttered in and out, finding bits of food among the plants and shrubs.
The back yard is small, surrounded by tall arbor vitae, with no cats or dogs roaming the space.
The birds found what food they could in the late November fog.
- - -
The day before that was the day after Thanksgiving. I was in Garibaldi early that morning to work on the business, marketing to potential clients, checking on maintenance and upkeep, showing up.
That morning, a commercial crab boat had gone out early. It was not named the "Alexa" or the "Emily" or the "Beautiful Jane", it was named in a play on words, the "Network", for working the nets.
The three on board had said goodbye early that morning to family, and had talked with friends and greeted visitors on the docks, and while making their way out of the marina.
The sky was dry but cloudy. Wind was moderate. Visibility excellent.
Then, heading to close sea for larger carbs and a bigger haul, they pushed over the bar, cutting rough waves coming from several directions, they got hit by a wave from the side, were floundered, righted, then were hit by another wave that took the boat under.
One of the three on board was rescued, suffering from severe hypothermia. The other two were not found that day. They may never be found, and yet they were just at the mouth of the bay, on the border between protected waters and the open ocean. Not far out to sea. Close to shore.
These are the first losses I have seen since going to the town regularly, though that bar is one of the most dangerous in the world, and people die there from time to time.
And although I did not know the men on board, I knew enough people in town who knew them.
I shared a little of their silent pain.
The people I talked with showed resignation, sadness, but not shock. This happens to some of those who work the sea.
- - -
The next morning, I appreciated the grass and plants, the small birds, the sky, my wife, my kids, and my life.
I listened a little more to music, thought a little more about the sky and the sea.
The two men on board who were lost did not have a second chance. That was it.
But each morning when I wake, I get a second chance at doing a little better, doing more of something useful.
This won't change my life, but it will make me think about it for a few days.
I won't be going through it as blindly for a short while.
Though I won't remember it like the families and friends of the two who are gone.
- - -
As I watched the backyard, I briefly understood why my father has made so many sculptures of those same birds. They move in unhurried haste, unaware of external worries. They are not sitting still, mourning any loss or pain, they are engaged in life. Their balletic movements and light verse make us feel better about our lives.
- - -
No matter what we do, or fail to do, we still get another chance each day.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Just Keep Swimming
I believe we can get through even a painful recession if we keep moving forward.
Find ways to improve your skills, learn more about your chosen profession, or go learn a new profession.
Take classes, read good information, talk to high achievers in your field, or in a field you think you may want to be in.
Work at what you can, and do your best when you work.
When you do whatever you do with intention and purpose, Work is Love Made Visible.
Spend less, save more.
Keep up your best attitude.
Smile.
Be grateful for whatever you have. It's a lot compared to the lives of millions of people around the world, and yes, it is a lot even compared to millions here at home.
But that is not really the point.
You don't have to compare yourself to anyone to be happy. So don't.
Be happy with less, and take this opportunity to find peace not in things, but in family, friends, the beauty of the world and the universe.
Forgive any slights, insults or meanness. It's better for you and easier on you to let go of it.
And Give Thanks.
Work, Forgiveness and Thankfulness can carry us through this.
They are all expressions of Love, and you know as well as I do, that is all we need.
Find ways to improve your skills, learn more about your chosen profession, or go learn a new profession.
Take classes, read good information, talk to high achievers in your field, or in a field you think you may want to be in.
Work at what you can, and do your best when you work.
When you do whatever you do with intention and purpose, Work is Love Made Visible.
Spend less, save more.
Keep up your best attitude.
Smile.
Be grateful for whatever you have. It's a lot compared to the lives of millions of people around the world, and yes, it is a lot even compared to millions here at home.
But that is not really the point.
You don't have to compare yourself to anyone to be happy. So don't.
Be happy with less, and take this opportunity to find peace not in things, but in family, friends, the beauty of the world and the universe.
Forgive any slights, insults or meanness. It's better for you and easier on you to let go of it.
And Give Thanks.
Work, Forgiveness and Thankfulness can carry us through this.
They are all expressions of Love, and you know as well as I do, that is all we need.
Oregon In The Fall
Just a few of the views from the hill on which we live.
I love the distinct seasons in Oregon.
The numerous hills on the Western side of the state
offer vistas with dimension and depth
not always seen in other places.
These were taken November 1, 2008.
Salamo Road, West Linn, Oregon
Thursday, November 20, 2008
I usually feel very optimistic about things.
I feel optimistic about the direction in which our country will go since the election.
I feel optimistic about people in general, and most people individually.
I am optimistic about humanity's chances of surviving the next few millennia.
But I am increasingly pessimistic about the economy of the U.S. and of the rest of the world. I feel things will look dim for the next year, maybe a little longer.
And I am concerned about the ability of my family members, friends, and everyone else to make a decent living during that time.
I hope (more optimism) that the government is doing things that will have a positive effect on the economy.
I don't know yet if that will happen, or if so, when.
I don't know what other countries will do in concert with us, or in response to us.
Will we see naked greed overcoming cooperation in other countries economic policies and in international trade?
Maybe. (Less optimism there.)
Everyone will likely be hurting. Will we see that behavior in our own country?
Should I just stay optimistic no matter what?
Can optimism have any effect?
If I feel positive, will it encourage me to do positive things, and would that encourage others to do positive things, and could that help?
If I act in positive ways, could that make positive changes in the world around me?
If a butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, might that cause Martha Stewart to go back to jail in Connecticut?
If I "Pay It Forward", and then want a refund later, do I have to take S&H Green Stamps?
If I say everything will be okay, and I truly believe everything will be okay, does that mean I need a frontal lobotomy?
I don't know.
I hope not.
I hope everything will be okay.
I guess in the end I'm really only concerned with my own survival...
I don't need much.
As long as I can have my Triple Espresso Macchiato Frappucino four times a day, and as long as I can still buy my Prada dog polisher, and as long as I can still get my New York Times and Wall Street Journal ironed every morning by Jeeves, and as long as I can still drive my Peterbilt 8 wheel drive 900 horsepower sport utility vehicle to pick up the kids at the Rancho Cucamonga Juan Corona Memorial School For Wayward Boys, and as long as I can winter in Ibiza and summer in the Playboy Mansion, I will be fine.
I feel optimistic about the direction in which our country will go since the election.
I feel optimistic about people in general, and most people individually.
I am optimistic about humanity's chances of surviving the next few millennia.
But I am increasingly pessimistic about the economy of the U.S. and of the rest of the world. I feel things will look dim for the next year, maybe a little longer.
And I am concerned about the ability of my family members, friends, and everyone else to make a decent living during that time.
I hope (more optimism) that the government is doing things that will have a positive effect on the economy.
I don't know yet if that will happen, or if so, when.
I don't know what other countries will do in concert with us, or in response to us.
Will we see naked greed overcoming cooperation in other countries economic policies and in international trade?
Maybe. (Less optimism there.)
Everyone will likely be hurting. Will we see that behavior in our own country?
Should I just stay optimistic no matter what?
Can optimism have any effect?
If I feel positive, will it encourage me to do positive things, and would that encourage others to do positive things, and could that help?
If I act in positive ways, could that make positive changes in the world around me?
If a butterfly flaps its wings in Beijing, might that cause Martha Stewart to go back to jail in Connecticut?
If I "Pay It Forward", and then want a refund later, do I have to take S&H Green Stamps?
If I say everything will be okay, and I truly believe everything will be okay, does that mean I need a frontal lobotomy?
I don't know.
I hope not.
I hope everything will be okay.
I guess in the end I'm really only concerned with my own survival...
I don't need much.
As long as I can have my Triple Espresso Macchiato Frappucino four times a day, and as long as I can still buy my Prada dog polisher, and as long as I can still get my New York Times and Wall Street Journal ironed every morning by Jeeves, and as long as I can still drive my Peterbilt 8 wheel drive 900 horsepower sport utility vehicle to pick up the kids at the Rancho Cucamonga Juan Corona Memorial School For Wayward Boys, and as long as I can winter in Ibiza and summer in the Playboy Mansion, I will be fine.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Crumbling Capitalism.
Stagnating Socialism.
Deteriorating Dictatorships.
Mayhem in Monarchies.
What does it all mean?
Nothing more than a recession that, thanks to Globalization, is actually Global in scope.
The looming Recesion can be depressing.
A looming Depression would be, well, worse I guess.
Crap.
But what can be done?
Look for ways to make it during the downturn.
What do you do that you could do a little differently in a difficult economic environment?
How can you pay down some (any) of your debt and, even better, put a bit of cash away for the rainy days coming in 2009?
Are there ways you can improve your usefulness to your company or to your customers?
Can you find additional ways to increase revenue that you may not have looked for before?
Is there a chance you can grow your job or your business in new areas?
We all have to get a little more competitive now.
Because there does not appear to be a choice, we will see what a rough recession is like all over again.
1981-1982 was tough, definitely tougher in some parts of the country than others, but generally tough all over.
That appears to be the model.
At least if we believe the talking heads all over the airwaves and the internet.
We can hope it's not that bad, but we should plan for it to be at least that bad, maybe a little worse, since credit is tight now and it was not so tight then, it was just expensive.
That makes this recession carry the possibility of more unpleasantness than the Reagan Recession.
Which is a damn shame.
I would have liked to see what Obama could do in an average economy.
But then, a real test brings out the best, right?
Let's hope for that best.
Stagnating Socialism.
Deteriorating Dictatorships.
Mayhem in Monarchies.
What does it all mean?
Nothing more than a recession that, thanks to Globalization, is actually Global in scope.
The looming Recesion can be depressing.
A looming Depression would be, well, worse I guess.
Crap.
But what can be done?
Look for ways to make it during the downturn.
What do you do that you could do a little differently in a difficult economic environment?
How can you pay down some (any) of your debt and, even better, put a bit of cash away for the rainy days coming in 2009?
Are there ways you can improve your usefulness to your company or to your customers?
Can you find additional ways to increase revenue that you may not have looked for before?
Is there a chance you can grow your job or your business in new areas?
We all have to get a little more competitive now.
Because there does not appear to be a choice, we will see what a rough recession is like all over again.
1981-1982 was tough, definitely tougher in some parts of the country than others, but generally tough all over.
That appears to be the model.
At least if we believe the talking heads all over the airwaves and the internet.
We can hope it's not that bad, but we should plan for it to be at least that bad, maybe a little worse, since credit is tight now and it was not so tight then, it was just expensive.
That makes this recession carry the possibility of more unpleasantness than the Reagan Recession.
Which is a damn shame.
I would have liked to see what Obama could do in an average economy.
But then, a real test brings out the best, right?
Let's hope for that best.
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