Monday, February 4, 2008

Super Two's Day

Tomorrow we will find out if anyone is really paying any attention at all.

Tomorrow is Tuesday, February 8, 2008.

Deos any one know the importance of this date? But of course...

February 8, 1622 King James I disbands the English parliament.

Would that it were so in this country...aaahh, the wisdom of that King James...

And later...

February 8, 1861 Confederate States of America organizes in Montgomery, Alabama

Secede from the nation, Southerners, SECEDE I say!

And of course, of considerably less importance, tomorrow is also Super-Duper Tuesday in the United States of Embarassment.

I append that misnomer the terminus of our republic's nomenclature primarily in jest, but also to illustrate a theorem. Or whatever.

You see, we are all looking at this Presidential Primary as a race, when that is what it actually is not.

Here is why there should be little doubt of the outcome of the Primary and of the General Election for President of the United States (barring the death of one of the leading candidates, or similarly their arraignment for murder or rape of an underage nun.)

1 - The War in Iraq continues.

2 - The Economy is now behaving like a slow motion airplane crash (we all know what is going to happen, and we dread it, but we keep watching faithfully).

3 - America is still populated by an astounding number of rednecks.

Ipso Facto Ad Infinitum...

We do not have to wait until tomorrow because...

Today, already, the election is over for Romney, Clinton, Huckabee and Obama.

The Primaries will leave either Obama or Clinton on the Democratic ticket (and maybe even both, if one will consent to accepting the nomination to run for Vice President this time around).

Huckabee will fall out as he just hasn't gotten enough support from the middle of the road Republicans or the Independent Democrats. He is sneered at by the major party leaders more than he is supported. Even the Evangelicals are not all for him, and he's their single best ticket to get what they want from the White House.

He is the closest thing to the Evangelical Christian Republican Conservative in the entire race, and the religious leaders have almost shunned him. But they all regularly show themselves to be complete nutbags anyway.

Romney will fall because he is just not Christian Right enough. He can never convince the majority of the Evangelical Christian Right of his alignment with their cause, because they almost all have a singularly negative attitude towards the Mormon Church.

They simply do not believe Mormons are real Christians, primarily because of the formation of the Church in modern times by a man. There are many other problems with the Church as well, in the eyes of the Evangelicals. They simply will not vote for him in numbers sufficient to win.

It is well past a foregone conclusion, and he has been fighting uphill towards these voters the entire time. In the privacy of the voting booth, they will not choose him.

And it is a funny thing, because the religious leaders who are now trying desperately to push him on their followers are the same religious leaders who have made it abundantly clear for decades that Mormons are not real Christians, they are not saved, and they are not going to heaven.

What happened to these people's memory? Okay, now it's different, NOW they want the flock to vote for one? Not going to happen.

McCain will be the Republican left standing, against either Obama or Clinton, and it really doesn't matter which.

In the privacy of the voting booth, on November 4, 2008 there are simply too many individuals in this country who, when it comes right down to it, in that moment of truth, will not elect a woman or a black person as President.

Many of us (not all of us) claim to be past the racist and sexist attitudes that gave us slavery, segregation, no voting rights for women, the glass ceiling, and so much more.

But deep in the hearts of so many, in dozens if not hundreds of small ways, it lingers still.

And no matter what the polls say, no matter what voters tell others, and even, surprisingly, no matter what voters do in the Primaries.

Voters will not necessarily lie on purpose to pollsters, friends or family. And many are and will continue ot vote for Obama or Clinton in the Primaries.

But the General Election is different.

In the voting booth, on that day, many votes will shift.

This is not a place where I am going to preach, or try to change anyone.

I am just stating what is. Not what I wish were the case.

Since the Economy is flushing, we want a leader who seems experienced enough to get us back on track.

Since the War in Iraq continues, we want a leader who can command the troops, and get us out in some reasonable way. We do not want to cut and run now. We all know that Bush got us into this on false pretenses, and we all know we should not have even gone in there, but now that we are there, we want a little dignity while leaving.

Obama would get the change vote, especially from the young and truly independent, but there is more to the story. He hasn't faced many real challenges in his government tenure, and he is largely an untested candidate. Change feels really good in the Primaries, but it can fail to deliver in the General Election if that is candidates only real asset.

Hillary would get a lot of votes from women and supporters of women's rights, and she might get more support for the Clinton record on the economy, which is pretty stellar, and which is yet another reason the Right hates her, since they wanted a budget surplus and never got it, but Bill did (as if the Right even needs any more reasons to hate her).

Both would get far Liberal / Left votes, with Obama likely getting the most.

McCain gets support from those who want politicians to tell us the truth, which he has done more than the average politician on key issues such as Torture and Campaign Finance Reform, among others, or at least it is perceived that he has done this more.

McCain gets support from those who feel at heart that since we are still at war, we need someone strong to get us out without making us look like even greater fools to the rest of the world.

McCain also gets support from those on the right who just will not vote for a Democrat.

McCain served in Vietnam, and was a prisoner of war for years. Our most recent leaders ditched the draft by way of family connections or other methods. And even though Bush let his supporters crudely smear McCain on his service in the 2000 race, McCain didn't go after Bush on dodging the draft via National Guard service at home.

Stunning omission, or beyond the pale gentlemanly conduct, I am not sure which.

We are so weary of politicians who have never gone to war pushing us into the hell of it. When will we ever learn?

We know there are still threats out there, and Al-Qaeda still wants to hurt us somehow. This is another reason McCain will win.

In the voting booths across the country, the Evangelical Christian Conservative Right is fragmented, but will come together not for Romney in the Primary, nor for either Obama or Clinton in the General Election.

Most of those votes will go to McCain, in defiance of the Evangelical leaders who don't want him and the Republican Media dickheads who mistrust and hate him.

Rush Limbaugh can't stand him. Ann Coulter said she would sooner vote for Clinton, she hates McCain so much. But then, she is just another flavor of nutbag anyway...

So the Evangelical / Conservative vote will largely go to McCain for another reason;
The voters are really tired of all the crap we have had to deal with as a result of voting for whom those same so-called leaders told them to vote for last time.

Seriously, the backlash vote will be very large this time.

It is so obvious to everyone that the choice of the Evangelicals and Far Right Conservatives last time, George W. Bush, picked a lousy team, made monumentally stupid decisions, fantastically increased the level of incompetence and cynicism in government, and is now leaving us all with a giant pile of shit to clean up.

Not that he isn't a swell guy. He actually is. Just a terrible President.

So the Right hates McCain, which will get him extra votes from the middle.

And the Right will not vote for Clinton or Obama, they will vote for him.

And those who want a strong leader to get us out of Iraq with dignity will vote for him.

And those fearful of more terrorism attacks will vote for him.

And those who want a more honest President will vote for him.

And all those who just cannot vote for a woman for President will vote for him.

And all those who just cannot vote for a black person for President will also vote for him.

There is still the economy, stupid, but McCain can capture the votes of those for whom that is most important simply, and with a few well placed phrases, such as,

"I will work hard for more jobs, more opportunity, and more Americans living the good life!"

"I promise to Put America First!"

"More jobs, better educations, cheaper health care!"

"Less War, More Jobs!"

"Less War, More Education!"

"Less War, More Health Care!"

Okay, those might be a stretch for McCain, but some well places, repetetive phrases signaling his willingness to increase job oportunities, provide better educations, and expand health care coverage to more Americans can get him over this particular hump.

I would like to see Obama and Clinton have a real chance, and right now the media and a lot of citizens are acting like they believe those two do have a real chance.

We all are playing along, pretending that we are not living in a country where a substantial minority will never vote for any black person except Bill Cosby, nor any woman with the possible exception of Barbara Bush senior.

That minority will vote for McCain, and that is all he will need to win. Even though he is likely not looking for a result driven by those factors.

I would really like to help elect a Woman as President one day, and a Black Person as President one day.

Either would show the world something new about us, and that could help us start to get respect back, and get us back on track working with real coalitions of nations, on the serious problems that we all are facing.

But in this election the two long shots do not have:

A - Enough experience (Obama) or,
B - Enough positive ratings among (Conservative) voters (Clinton)

And even if those realities were not the case, I'm not sure I could yet see a low enough redneck-effect to actually believe they could get enough votes to win.

Someday it will happen, just not this time.


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